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patio11's profile
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11

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Patrick McKenzie

@patio11

I work for the Internet, at @stripe, mostly on accelerating startups. Opinions here are my own.

東京都 Tokyo
kalzumeus.com
Joined February 2009

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    1. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 4
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      Coronavirus increasingly appears likely to be the worst natural disaster in decades. I don't think it is yet appreciated how much it directly and indirectly attacks infrastructure, distinct from most disasters.

      24 replies 115 retweets 751 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Burak Yenigun‏ @BurakYngn Apr 4
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      Replying to @patio11

      I think a complete supply chain breakdown concern underestimates people's instincts to sacrifice self for the collective. "We must work or people will starve" is a sufficient call for people to take on 1-10% death risk in small air pockets.

      1 reply 0 retweets 20 likes
      Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 4
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      Replying to @BurakYngn

      I’m less worried about risk “people might prefer self over others” and more worried about the risk “there are hidden dependencies for particular people in particular air pockets which are not observable until that person and only two substitutes are simultaneously in hospital.”

      4:32 AM - 4 Apr 2020
      • 5 Retweets
      • 98 Likes
      • Tim H Bobby Jade 🦝 Tim “Tim” Long Antonio de Jesus Ochoa Solano Tony Spencer Travelling teacher Saku Panditharatne Watson Ladd
      6 replies 5 retweets 98 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Sebastian Good‏ @sebastiangood Apr 4
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          Replying to @patio11 @BurakYngn

          This is the key observation in my opinion. Modern corporate habits have slashed excess capacity AND chopped processes among many unempowered individuals. Where a loan might once have been approved by one banker, it now takes 30 people and 10 rickety IT systems.

          1 reply 2 retweets 7 likes
        3. Sebastian Good‏ @sebastiangood Apr 4
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          Replying to @sebastiangood @patio11 @BurakYngn

          There are more points of failure, less opportunity for an individual with agency to fix problems, and just fewer people than are needed in general.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        2. Burak Yenigun‏ @BurakYngn Apr 4
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          Replying to @patio11

          Isn’t that too remote a possibility assuming any kind of redundancy (say 10% ^ 3 = 0.1%)? Sure, given enough companies some will get taken out, and a small % of those won’t be replaced by competitors, but odds slim enough that other risks dominate? (Say, pitchforks)

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Burak Yenigun‏ @BurakYngn Apr 4
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          Replying to @BurakYngn @patio11

          i.e. If lack of redundancy breaks 1% of the supply chain, we could eat beef instead of chicken. Hits to core infrastructure like electric grid is scarier, but “feels” like unexpected shocks there should come from externalities/demand rather than internal employee sickness

          3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. 2 more replies
        1. Chad Loder‏ @chadloder Apr 4
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          Replying to @patio11 @BurakYngn

          Chad Loder Retweeted Chad Loder

          Gah. There's a really triggering and heartbreaking version of the air pocket: parents with babies.https://twitter.com/chadloder/status/1244288831139921921?s=20 …

          Chad Loder added,

          Chad Loder @chadloder
          [trigger warning] Thread of things I’ve learned working w/ COVID19 authorities and mutual aid groups worldwide. 1. Babies have died at home after both parents died. 2. Everyone create an updated advance directive & healthcare proxy. Make sure it gets filed and shared.
          Show this thread
          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Michael Leinart‏ @mikeleinart Apr 4
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          Replying to @patio11 @BurakYngn

          This is entirely correct. Spend any amt. of time wrestling seriously with how lateral capabilities work in complex organizations. Look, just for instance, at exactly why we can’t move more than 50-60% of knowledge worker jobs offsite, even in this emergency. We have a mess.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. If They Only Had A Brain‏ @CharlieDonahue4 Apr 4
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          Replying to @patio11 @BurakYngn

          You are completely overstating the amount of risk. Currently, the only thing we are witnessing, for the most part, is the old and sick dying with C19not necessarily to any large degree because of C19. You may disagree with this assessment but that's what the data is stating.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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