Coronavirus increasingly appears likely to be the worst natural disaster in decades. I don't think it is yet appreciated how much it directly and indirectly attacks infrastructure, distinct from most disasters.
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This is the key observation in my opinion. Modern corporate habits have slashed excess capacity AND chopped processes among many unempowered individuals. Where a loan might once have been approved by one banker, it now takes 30 people and 10 rickety IT systems.
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There are more points of failure, less opportunity for an individual with agency to fix problems, and just fewer people than are needed in general.
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Isn’t that too remote a possibility assuming any kind of redundancy (say 10% ^ 3 = 0.1%)? Sure, given enough companies some will get taken out, and a small % of those won’t be replaced by competitors, but odds slim enough that other risks dominate? (Say, pitchforks)
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i.e. If lack of redundancy breaks 1% of the supply chain, we could eat beef instead of chicken. Hits to core infrastructure like electric grid is scarier, but “feels” like unexpected shocks there should come from externalities/demand rather than internal employee sickness
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Gah. There's a really triggering and heartbreaking version of the air pocket: parents with babies.https://twitter.com/chadloder/status/1244288831139921921?s=20 …
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This is entirely correct. Spend any amt. of time wrestling seriously with how lateral capabilities work in complex organizations. Look, just for instance, at exactly why we can’t move more than 50-60% of knowledge worker jobs offsite, even in this emergency. We have a mess.
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You are completely overstating the amount of risk. Currently, the only thing we are witnessing, for the most part, is the old and sick dying with C19not necessarily to any large degree because of C19. You may disagree with this assessment but that's what the data is stating.
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