This is a very lucid explanation of what we currently know about coronavirus spread: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca … The graph you should be most concerned about is the one that demonstrates that, at the point you know coronavirus has taken root in your area, it is *very* widespread.
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Somebody mentioned to me that they think I have updated on this issue in the last few weeks. That rounds to accurate; the thing that did it was understanding that non-linearity of supply chains also applies to medical beds. We have existence proofs now. We will, sadly, get more.
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I disagree it can't be done. Space can be requisitioned. There's a shortage of eg. ventilators, but there's no fundamental reason why we couldn't build 1M of them in a few months. Only institutional inertia and suckage can prevent it.
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it's not just a matter of having enough machines, mechanical ventilation needs to be done by a skilled, trained person or you choke on your own fluids and die. it also often requires general anesthesia
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The Chinese built 2 hospitals in Wuhan, in 10 days, for several thousands people.
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