If you are cognizant of there being 100 people infected in your area, it is because there were ~2k people infected severe enough to require medical attention *that day*. They will present to emergency room in 2 weeks of further exponential growth.
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There is no hospital system on the planet that has burst capacity for these graphs. It cannot be done. The article then lays out what medical professionals are saying: when you go over capacity, doctors have to start triaging patients who otherwise would have made it.
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Somebody mentioned to me that they think I have updated on this issue in the last few weeks. That rounds to accurate; the thing that did it was understanding that non-linearity of supply chains also applies to medical beds. We have existence proofs now. We will, sadly, get more.
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From this piece, based on China's case, you can see the gap between what we think we know, and reality. Scary
"the orange bars show you what authorities knew, and the grey ones what was really happening."pic.twitter.com/kki9gj1oaH
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On "Social distancing": Learnings from the 1918 Flu Pandemic You can see how Philadelphia didn’t act quickly, and had a massive peak in death rates. Compare that with St Louis, which did.pic.twitter.com/KLKVPnpsux
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It's also a very wrong explanation from a techie who thought they could just whip together a disease model. Pretty much everybody with a public health background I've seen comment on this is "yeah, no, models are completely fucked"
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Except, you know, this Oxford professor of primary care.pic.twitter.com/eN31qvdRNK
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It’s pretty clear that detection lags far behind infection. Which has a lot of implications that diverge from common narratives.
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My prediction for Chile, 23 cases "confirmed today"https://twitter.com/josegocampo/status/1237796920241917952?s=20 …
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