There are an awful lot of Dangerous Professionals right now thinking very carefully about a) whether coronavirus is force majeure , b) whether that answer depends on local circumstances or could change, and c) whether there should be an oracle for this question in future.
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This is one of those reasons why governments declaring a state of emergency is a consequential act in the real world, because they have sufficient stature to say “Our determination of whether there is or isn’t one is definitely not colored by desire to see a result in this case.”
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An interesting implication of the world getting faster and more automated is that historically it’s “Your both sophisticated businesses; work it out or engage in ruinously expensive slow processes with the legal system” and these days a lot of people/firms might want an API.
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Like, an underappreciated consequence of financial engineering is that courts historically tell you what a contract means but there are some systems where that is so disruptive that what the contract really means is what an engineer decided it means, with or without CHANGELOG.txt
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“You’re being very opaque.” An asset back security’s funds flows are at the base determined by layers of contracts which treat below layers of contracts as atoms, etc etc etc, and in principle any layer could be litigable, but in practice, it’s N eng teams and M ops teams.
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Judge: You have to X. Ops: I have no button which does X. Judge: I. Am. A. Judge. Ops: Do you build buttons, Your Honor? (Which will never actually be said, but, this has basically happened, including during financial crisis cleanup.)
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Just went through this -- Hotel/Convention center in Tier 1 West Coast city denying that hosting a 5,000 person event in early April is "impossible" based on the terms of the contract and that it would be willingly cancelled today (subject to all the loss of deposits, etc.)
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Would have been happy to negotiate a reduced deposit / rescheduled event but they were sticking to it. Told them we'd wait two weeks to cancel and they'd lose our business forever... Felt for them, owned by a big entertainment group that's going to get hammered but $$$ are $$$.
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Any interesting precedents from swing flu, MERS, SARS, etc? Is an epidemic generally considered in this category?
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