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patio11's profile
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11

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Patrick McKenzie

@patio11

I work for the Internet, at @stripe, mostly on accelerating startups. Opinions here are my own.

東京都 Tokyo
kalzumeus.com
Joined February 2009

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    1. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Feb 20
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      Patrick McKenzie Retweeted Dan McMurtrie

      I’m generally the optimistic one regarding predictions about how the thing in the news plays out but FWIW Tokyo appears to be battening down the hatches for a major storm. Would highlight “nonlinearity of supply chains.”https://twitter.com/SuperMugatu/status/1230562561201819650 …

      Patrick McKenzie added,

      Dan McMurtrie @SuperMugatu
      Serious Take: Base case for anyone doing any actual channel checks here should be 2 quarters of severe supply chain disruption. Media and Sell Side dripping out reality on lag because they have to maintain access. Autos, Semis, Travel annual numbers are absurd.
      Show this thread
      4 replies 6 retweets 49 likes
    2. Kevin Kwok‏ @kevinakwok Feb 20
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      Replying to @patio11

      Really? On normal civilian side they’re really gearing up?

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Feb 20
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      Replying to @kevinakwok

      I know of no population other than Mormons more likely to have food and water stockpiled just in case than the moms at my kids’ school and the last few days all everyone has talked about is “How many days should we bump it to?”

      12:18 PM - 20 Feb 2020
      • 2 Retweets
      • 20 Likes
      • MΔ5K Christopher Smith Fork From Home Jeffrey Richman 😷 David Jarvis Fitz-Lloyd Smith entitled millennial Kevin Kwok If you meet 60+-year-olds, quarantine like one
      2 replies 2 retweets 20 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Feb 20
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          Replying to @patio11 @kevinakwok

          The “3 days; it would require national calamity to disrupt Tokyo food supplies for more than 3 days” faction is losing to the “2 weeks; I just don’t trust them to get a handle on this. Who is going to be willing to shut down the Olympics to slow spread?” faction.

          1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
        3. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Feb 20
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          Replying to @patio11 @kevinakwok

          Above observations offered as market color. I haven’t made any changes to our investments or emergency supplies but have made changes to routines to avoid areas with perceived risk of being infection hotspots, and my family has discussed by not adopted more disruptive plans.

          0 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Kevin Kwok‏ @kevinakwok Feb 20
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          Replying to @patio11

          Ah but done by citizens themselves vs govt acting. I expect citizens to for sure Btw the stories I hear on manufacturing side sound v bad for sure too

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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