“Define ‘materially higher’” I want to be at at least the 95th percentile of the distribution of smart people with respect to this guess. Will come up with an appropriate reference class and a target number prior to publishing “formally.”
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The biggest risk to my prediction is probably the extent to which you believe global macroeconomic policy causes all asset prices, including Google RSUs, to appreciate more than justified by future returns over any 4 year period, and that therefore engineer comp is political.
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Define software engineer. I think the market for talent splits. Right now software engineer covers everything from careers that can rightfully be started in a few months to careers that require years of experience. They are only really the same in that they all involve typing.
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I don’t think it splits by area necessarily, but we might develop real entry level positions (with some companies becoming smart enough to do their own training from scratch instead of relying on third parties) and greater differentiation along the ladder.
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Both of these can be true: pay will probably be higher and programmers should plan on pay being lower.
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Both can be true. The only still employed programmers will earn much more. Most currently employed programmers will not be employed in IT anymore. GPT-20 will be. This is just my wild speculation on zero coffe so I don't believe it myself
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Oh absolutely - I have thought this for a while. Look at the “wage share” of revenue historically 60% but down now to 40%ish for all industries in the US. Given big-tech revenue per employee of $1.6m implies avg dev there should get >$640k
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....and you are starting to see this in with some startups in China now and with ML in the US. Starting to see non-famous, non-ultra senior devs get $1m/year compensation packages.
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An interesting question would be, how can we individual devs help to make them higher? I think tools like https://japan-dev.com/ , Glassdoor, your "Salary Negotiation" article, etc. help raising salaries by spreading awareness to the underpaid.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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There's two potential sources for a programmer's take home pay: 1. Salaried income 2. Self employment income The former depends on supply/demand, so it's a question of which of those two things will grow faster But...
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But the latter will prob bring $$$ for a long time as new tools bring new opportunities. So I agree with you on the latter, but I'm not sure about the former. Given how many industries are still decades behind in tech, there's a decent chance demand will skyrocket

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