A thing I believe with medium confidence: One reason many institutions today are weaker than counterparts were generations ago was that allocation of smart people got more efficient for certain definitions of efficient, and institutions no longer benefit from so much free lunch.
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I think my thoughts are leading me to the sounds-controversial-but-not-intrinsically-implausible conclusion that bridges are like swords: allocating productive capacity to them is evidence that one's society is poor, and what reads like difficulty is in fact just preferences.
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Swords are a fun, evocative example: I bet the real price of one sword serviceable for betting your life on is less than it than it was in 1500 but that if one needed ten thousand swords in six weeks that would be *barely* within the capabilities of the United States government.
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