Writing my performance evaluation today, most of which is private but which I’m happy to share the fundamental strategy: Run a portfolio of experiments. Unlike an actual investment, you can increase sizing *after* the results are in at a similar entry price. Do that ruthlessly.
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Interestingly I think this is similar to my operational mode when consulting but different from when I was running a company (there were a lot of non-optional things that had required execution but no return for out-executing; taxes or banking, etc) and different from some peers.
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Since the sizing of an investment metaphor might be a bit weird for people who don't allocate capital professionally: Suppose hypothetically you have 100 units of mental bandwidth and run 5 experiments with 20 units each. 3 work, 1 has the seeds of greatness.
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You could: a) Be told by your manager "Ugh, you've got a 40% failure rate." Many businesses are managed this way. Prefer not to work in them if you work in this fashion. b) Run 5 new experiments next quarter with 20 units each. c) Put ~60 units in scaling adoption of #1 result
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Replying to @patio11
How do allocate doubling down on what’s working vs exploring the space of potentially better projects? Especially considering it’s an infinite game with no “true” optimal solution. Something like simulated annealing where you gradually become less experimental don’t make sense.
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Replying to @MichaelThiessen
This is a major unsolved problem for me; very not obvious that I or my organization are at an optimum, even locally. In practice I tend to explore the space either once I think I've got organization executing on the effective thing or when I get bored.
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It is so non-obvious to me that my boredom timer being an input into how long the organization explores an issue is obvious that I'm not sure I have a strong point of view on whether my boredom timer is generally too long or too short.
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