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patio11's profile
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11

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Patrick McKenzie

@patio11

I work for the Internet, at @stripe, mostly on accelerating startups. Opinions here are my own.

東京都 Tokyo
kalzumeus.com
Joined February 2009

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    1. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 9 Dec 2019
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      Curious: what do you think you, personally (not others!), should do about climate change? How do you feel about your own answer - does it seem satisfactory to you, or unsatisfactory?

      201 replies 51 retweets 300 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 11 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @michael_nielsen

      I feel like “Do nothing” is a strong default for most issues and if you tell me my individual contribution has no impact at margin, my community has near total consensus, and societal attention is high, those would all counsel me to increase confidence in doing nothing.

      1 reply 0 retweets 24 likes
    3. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 11 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @patio11 @michael_nielsen

      This seems like an unsatisfactory answer in terms of social desirability but a reasonably satisfactory answer in terms of confidence in reasoning.

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    4. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 11 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @patio11

      Curious: do you vote? Personal question, obviously no need to answer! But a very similar argument could be made, so I'm curious if you see it similarly or differently.

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    5. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 11 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @michael_nielsen

      I vote, and am sympathetic to the argument it’s symbolic, but my estimate of relative likelihood of vote mattering at margin versus personal carbon emissions mattering is at least 10e6 X in favor of voting. (And the one jurisdiction I have franchise in is extremely uncompetitive)

      2 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
    6. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 11 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @patio11

      Thanks! Incidentally, I'm not sure I'm understanding your comment about "no impact at the margin". CO2 offsets or reduced emissions don't really have diminishing returns. 1 tonne less is 1 tonne less. Could you unpack a little?

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 11 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @michael_nielsen

      Holding all else equal, no action which I could in personal capacity take to reduce or offset emissions is distinguishable from not taking that action.

      2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
      Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 11 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @patio11 @michael_nielsen

      Like if I tip a housekeeper $20 then someone gets some non-zero number of utility from $20 but if I do equivalent on carbon reduction no instrument available to science can detect the difference. Argument generalizes to all numbers within my personal capacity.

      10:45 PM - 11 Dec 2019
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      • Steve McQueen michael_nielsen
      5 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        2. José Luis Ricón Fernández de la Puente‏ @ArtirKel 11 Dec 2019
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          Replying to @patio11 @michael_nielsen

          If you drop a coin in an Olympic pool it's going to be near impossible to detect. Yet, there has been a rise in water. Now, if everyone did it...

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Naveen Michaud-Agrawal‏ @naveenma 12 Dec 2019
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          Replying to @ArtirKel @patio11 @michael_nielsen

          So then the only useful course of action as an individual is to convince as many.others to not drop a coin either.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. Leon Bambrick‏ @secretGeek 11 Dec 2019
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          Replying to @patio11 @michael_nielsen

          Then it’s a reason to reevaluate the fundamentals of the argument you’re using?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. David Schneider-Joseph‏ @TheDavidSJ 11 Dec 2019
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          Replying to @patio11 @michael_nielsen

          This argument doesn’t seem to work: the probability of an instrument detecting the impact is extremely low, but when the instruments do detect such an impact the magnitude is extremely high. Thus the expected rate of impact shouldn’t be less merely because the quantity is small.

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        1. Sam Havens‏ @sam_havens 12 Dec 2019
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          Replying to @patio11 @michael_nielsen

          This assumes only first order effects, which is less true of you (a Twitter and HN nerd superstar (said with affection, as a nerd)) than the average person. You could influence someone who has leverage on a govt or Corp climate policy... (insert something about fat tails)

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        1. JT Booth‏ @jtbooth1021 12 Dec 2019
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          Replying to @patio11 @michael_nielsen

          Couldn't we "solve" this objection by replacing $20 of carbon reduction with a $20 lottery ticket and promising to donate the winnings? Probability my action is detectable doesn't seem like a great metric here. Or are you saying even large carbon reduction doesn't matter?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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