I should make more 5 and 10 year out predictions, because people are very recency-biased in their view of the world and "Hey let's revisit this list from 5 years ago" helps to combat that. A great example:https://blog.samaltman.com/bubble-talk
-
-
then the bet (or prediction; I tend to think the money part is uninteresting at most margins) functions as a mechanism for causing the market to converge on truth irrespective of whether the bet succeeds or not.
-
I also think the public commentary/private commentary part gets a little weird because of signaling and extreme social non-desirability of calling out an important market node. My perception of the discourse was "A bet is a tax on bullshit. There has been a great deal of it."
- 3 more replies
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.