I should make more 5 and 10 year out predictions, because people are very recency-biased in their view of the world and "Hey let's revisit this list from 5 years ago" helps to combat that. A great example:https://blog.samaltman.com/bubble-talk
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In addition to recency bias I think people are *far* too likely to be negative in general outlook and will be able to find at least one negative thing which happened and say "See? I was right all along", so putting an actual numerical threshhold on observable outcomes is good.
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Yes, even if ends up losing due to Uber fall is very impressive Besides it's cautionary tale on calling bubbles (though don't think it means people shouldn't--just that they should have bottoms up reasons for it) it's interesting in *which* one isn't clear win. And relative perf
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also always interesting exercise to think about how much is not in the details--but in macro having view on whether to be long or short market. Not in a demeaning/diminishing way--but actually. Some firms have been built on this
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Those two being #2 and #3 right? (Some quick math on #1 looks like those 6 companies are together in the 160B range, shy of 200B.)
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