I should make more 5 and 10 year out predictions, because people are very recency-biased in their view of the world and "Hey let's revisit this list from 5 years ago" helps to combat that. A great example:https://blog.samaltman.com/bubble-talk
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And not to scoop an update post, but at least two of those three predictions are extremely uncontroversially right.
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In addition to recency bias I think people are *far* too likely to be negative in general outlook and will be able to find at least one negative thing which happened and say "See? I was right all along", so putting an actual numerical threshhold on observable outcomes is good.
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End of conversation
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I think there was a subset of 2015 startups that did “pop”: all the Uber-for-X / food delivery startups. In fact Altman also wrote about that: https://blog.samaltman.com/unit-economics But yeah the general tech industry has been doing well overall
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