There is, in November of 2019, a narrative around "Oh goodness startups have been brought to earth, the music has stopped, whatever will happen in the near future", and it's useful remembering "People were confidently calling the top in 2015. Here was an optimist's prediction."
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And not to scoop an update post, but at least two of those three predictions are extremely uncontroversially right.
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In addition to recency bias I think people are *far* too likely to be negative in general outlook and will be able to find at least one negative thing which happened and say "See? I was right all along", so putting an actual numerical threshhold on observable outcomes is good.
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Considering the extreme confidence in and around the post (post says that the most likely way the bet could fail is due to bad macro conditions, higher interest rates, anyone who would bet against any single of the three conditions probably isn't competent to be a VC...
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...with most public responses from VCs being that it's a sucker bet, of course it's going to succeed, in each basket one individual company will satisfy the criteria, Uber alone will satisfy the criteria, etc.), I find it odd that you're using this as a counterexample.
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It's interesting to go through predictions. Has YC15 Winter Batch reached $3B valuation? GitLabs is +$1B valuation, but are there other unicorns in that batch?
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Yup! GitLab was valued at 2.75B in their Series E round in Sept, Razorpay (Indian Payment Processing Platform) was valued at $450M in their Series C round in June
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did anyone take the other side of Sam's bet? would be very bold to do so. equally, if nobody did, that also says something about the bubble talkers.
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I remember the times when bubble mongers where saying that Bitcoin was a bubble. The price was 120$. So you are not right. Valuations fluctuate in the short mid run. It is normal. In the long run there is no such thing as bubble.
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Great idea. Even 1Y predictions
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