Would anybody have picked Microsoft as the most likely company to add four new Microsofts to the world in e.g. 2012?https://twitter.com/destraynor/status/1197612117794406402 …
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I had to count the number of new Microsofts on my fingers twice because I was sure I was right with the four but uncertain about the year and didn't want to accidentally misstate growth by a Microsoft.
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(I used to own a trivial amount of Microsoft stock and sold at some point to economize on mental bandwidth. This is one of the many reasons I rate my crystal ball for public equities as being unlikely to be better than the market's.)
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Replying to @patio11
Why so much confidence on negative view on bitcoin then?
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Replying to @btcproj
Inputs-wise, because I put in the work. It seems extremely unlikely to me that I have spent more time thinking about how Microsoft's business works than the marginal buyer for
$MSFT. Than the marginal Bitcoiner? Probably. Outputs-wise, testable predictions about future.1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes -
If you had a portfolio of claims that cryptocurrency enthusiasts and I disagree on over the last several years then they've broadly been right about number going up and I've broadly been right on non-adoption, fit for purpose, exchange insolvency, bad actors, etc.
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There is still no really good instrument for me to resolve my difference of opinion with cryptocurrency enthusiasts, but if it ever comes, I will be very loud about my position and give people instructions on how to take my money if they think I'm likely to be wrong :)
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Replying to @patio11
Sorry what do you mean? There’s tons of ways to short cryptocurrency?
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I don't have confidence I'd be paid if cryptocurrency businesses vanished in a fireball. The best instrument presently available outside of it is the futures contracts, and they have unattractive characteristics (poor margin requirements + implicit downside protection to longs).
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