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patio11's profile
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11

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Patrick McKenzie

@patio11

I work for the Internet, at @stripe, mostly on accelerating startups. Opinions here are my own.

東京都 Tokyo
kalzumeus.com
Joined February 2009

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    1. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 6 Nov 2019
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      Patrick McKenzie Retweeted Jason Crawford

      A thing that keeps me up at night is that there is almost certainly, today, something which might not be shaped like penicillin but has a similar level of impact, and which is really sweating the next thousand dollars.https://twitter.com/jasoncrawford/status/1183833891209019392 …

      Patrick McKenzie added,

      Jason Crawford @jasoncrawford
      This is the most astonishing part of the story to me. If you had a crystal ball in 1928 and you could peer into the future of any scientific discovery, you would have been screaming to the world, “Guys, GUYS! OVER HERE! *This* one!” [pointing furiously at Fleming/Penicillium]
      Show this thread
      8 replies 31 retweets 209 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 6 Nov 2019
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      And it’s not sitting in isolation; it is almost indistinguishable from 899 experiments which will go nowhere and 100 outright frauds which, after they lead the nightly news, will have your funding body of choice dutifully make sure that penicillin needs more paper for its grants.

      1 reply 1 retweet 48 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 6 Nov 2019
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      I don’t know if I have a solution for this at the moment, other than not laughing when someone starts a conversation with “I think I am working on something bigger the penicillin.”

      2 replies 1 retweet 21 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 6 Nov 2019
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      And, in the maybe 30% of lifetimes where I meet someone doing that, hopefully I immediately say “Good news, I have exactly one relevant professional skill. Here is all the money. Make progress on it and I can find you more.”

      6 replies 0 retweets 37 likes
      Show this thread
    5.  🇺🇸Elliot Temple 🤔‏ @curi42 6 Nov 2019
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      Replying to @patio11

      I think I'm working on something bigger than penicillin. It's improved methodology for rational discussion and thinking. However, it's hard to monetize, hard to get anyone to listen or use it, and hard to use funding to help the project.

      2 replies 3 retweets 0 likes
    6. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 6 Nov 2019
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      Replying to @curi42

      Most successful examples I can think of of popularizing "I simply think better than you" involve using single player mode to dominate valuable competitive environments until the entire world says "Oh eff me that parlour trick actually works." Sometimes this takes decades.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 6 Nov 2019
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      Replying to @patio11 @curi42

      A corollary to this is that if one cannot dominate valuable competitive environments in single player mode, one should decrease one's estimate that one thinks better than everyone else. Examples from history: statistical process control in Japan, bond & options pricing, etc.

      1:37 AM - 6 Nov 2019
      • 1 Retweet
      • 2 Likes
      • Ari Nielsen Mark Eichin Burak Yenigun
      1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2.  🇺🇸Elliot Temple 🤔‏ @curi42 6 Nov 2019
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          Replying to @patio11

          SPC is massively underdeveloped today. Eg https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14783363.2015.1050181 … "Until now, there has been a lack of a sound, structured review analysing past publications and guiding future research on the implementation of SPC in the food industry context (Dora et al., 2013b; Grigg, 1998)."

          1 reply 1 retweet 0 likes
        3.  🇺🇸Elliot Temple 🤔‏ @curi42 6 Nov 2019
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          Replying to @curi42 @patio11

          And "The application of continuous improvement methods and techniques in the food industry are not as advanced as other industries and hence there are very few publications on Six Sigma and Lean Six Sigma in the food industry"

          1 reply 1 retweet 0 likes
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