One thing I love about having writing on the Internet is that I can look back and see how I did on predictions. 10 years after this one: I think I'd still endorse virtually everything I said here. (Though Facebook closed gap with Google much more than was apparent.) https://twitter.com/susheelsunil/status/1189377816271261698 …
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"What about Bitcoin?" I acknowledge that when Bitcoin was $17 I said it had no use case, should be worthless, and likely would be at some point in the future. No evidence has come up which would make me change my view. (Though *my* is it taking a while.)
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Thanks for sharing your misses as well!
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seeing Facebook as the future of the web when one participates in multiple deep & eclectic community sites is refuting one's own daily experiences. very hard to do.
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You are not the only one. I missed fb, and while i was market weight or close to it in appl. I never believed the story. Still dont. Must be a bad bias i have from my first ipod not connecting to my pc.
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Remember seeing some Facebook stock on sale on some private employee stock selling site, valued at $1B and I figured that although it's getting popular, there's no way it's worth $1B ..
End of conversation
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Will never be right 100% of the time. Good for you to acknowledge and learn from missed prections. Also, fantastic write-up on Tether!
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It's only *really* a miss if you had a chance to invest. Otherwise it's just free learning.
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many people who were routinely & deeply embedded in tight niche community sites perceived Facebook as overly broad, shallow & banal. the decline of feed readers, blogs, indy web, etc. consolidated attention on a few social feeds much like winner takes most in search.
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