I don't know whether it's the contrarian in me or the part that is just fascinated by the mechanics of finance, but I feel like I would weight more highly commentary about the Vision Fund if it were followed with "And that's why I shorted it, using publicly traded instruments."
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This seems like it's a description of an effective but indirect and complicated way to create a short... And not a description of how to clamp down again on all the other unrelated probabilities it now encompasses. How complex would it get trying to do those?
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I mean, you can sensibly add a couple things in there (JPY/USD hedging, etc), but at some point you either say “OK either I have sufficient conviction that I’m right about the thesis here that model error will come out in wash or, in alternative, I know nothing meaningful.”
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And ideally you do this via long-dated deep-in-the-money options at least for the short part in order to bound your downside risk
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This is a very common stub trade both long and short - pretty well known battleground
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