"How would you do that?"
The SoftBank Group is a holding company. Its ticker is $SFTBY. As a holding company, it is essentially just a math formula plus leverage. They publish the formula and the leverage.
c.f. the snapshot on page 31 of their 2019 AR https://cdn.group.softbank/en/corp/set/data/irinfo/financials/annual_reports/pdf/2019/sbg_annual_report_2019_001.pdf …
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Alibaba ($BABA among other places), SoftBank (9984), Sprint ($S), and Yahoo Japan (4689) are relatively easy to acquire on the open market. ARM is not. The Vision Fund is not. There's some minor residual value to the SoftBank Group.
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To short the equity of the Vision Fund you short SoftBank Group, go long on those four constituents, and then either a) call it a day or b) figure out some way to go synthetically long on ARM.
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This is *absolutely not* a recommendation to do this; this is a napkin sketch of how it could be done, if one believed one was much better informed than the market about the probability distribution of future returns to the Vision Fund.
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the market can stay irrational a lot longer than most people can stay solvent
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“Don’t play pocket aces; they lose 20% of the time versus kings.” is an equally true statement, and has roughly the same set of remedies.
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How would you short a VC? Short their LPs? Are there options that are easily available to bet against them?
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Adam Neumann was the real short seller, but he used private instruments (his company)
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...asking for a friend.
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