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patio11's profile
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11

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Patrick McKenzie

@patio11

I work for the Internet, at @stripe, mostly on accelerating startups. Opinions here are my own.

東京都 Tokyo
kalzumeus.com
Joined February 2009

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    1. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 6 Oct 2019
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      Technology-driven widespread unemployment ("the robots will take all the jobs") is, like wizards who fly spaceships, a fun premise for science fiction but difficult to find examples for in economic history. (The best example I know is for horses.)

      15 replies 22 retweets 137 likes
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    2. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 6 Oct 2019
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      I understand people who are extremely concerned by it, but I think you need a theory for it which successfully predicts bank teller employment trends over the last 50 years prior to justifying the number of column inches it gets.

      4 replies 4 retweets 42 likes
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    3. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 6 Oct 2019
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      "Haha Patrick you're not going to tell me bank teller employment is up since we made a machine literally called Automated Teller Machine are you." Bessen, 2015:pic.twitter.com/wf3eZfMiqd

      11 replies 37 retweets 155 likes
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      Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 6 Oct 2019
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      "Wait why did that happen?" Short version: the ATM makes each bank branch need less tellers to operate at a desired level of service, but the growth of the economy (and the tech-driven decline in cost of bank branch OpEx) caused branch count to outgrow decline in tellers/branch.

      9:27 PM - 6 Oct 2019
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      6 replies 8 retweets 81 likes
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        2. Darth Covidious‏ @nycplayer 6 Oct 2019
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          Replying to @patio11

          Alternate take: The US population grew by about 36% between 1980 and 2010. The number of employed tellers grew by about 20% over the same time period. So, the percentage of the population finding work as tellers clearly declined, despite the growing economy being good for banks.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Darth Covidious‏ @nycplayer 6 Oct 2019
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          Replying to @nycplayer @patio11

          And that's before you take into account tellers' salaries, which were about $29,000 in 1980 and went down to $24000 in 2010. (Both numbers in 2010 dollars)

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. kasey_junk‏ @kasey_junk 6 Oct 2019
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          Replying to @patio11

          Now do accountants. Cause their salary story is more interesting.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Aaron Wall‏ @aaronwall 6 Oct 2019
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          Replying to @patio11

          the marginal impact on distribution of income is more significant than the distribution of jobs. https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/el2019-25.pdf … "Automation has been an important driving factor. ... the portion of national income going to workers—has declined from about 63% in 2000 to 56% in 2018."

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        1. how do i delete tweet‏ @atroche 6 Oct 2019
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          Replying to @patio11

          Seems relevant that tellers can still do things an ATM can't (e.g. understand customer problems and provide advice). Do you think it'll still hold even after AI can do those things better?

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        1. Aaron Wall‏ @aaronwall 6 Oct 2019
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          Replying to @patio11

          had markets been allowed to work in 2008 & 2009, in the short run there would have been fewer bank branches & then longer term the distribution of power within the banking system would have become more diffused. this outcome was disallowed by political "hope and (non)change"

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