Spending many years working on something that has less than a 1000 to 1 chance of success is irrational. Regardless of the outcome potential. Your expected value should come within your lifetime, not from 1000 parallel lifetimes.https://twitter.com/mwseibel/status/1164945772162342912 …
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(This is contingent on not doing a thing frequently done which this community should discourage: turning off one’s salary during the final 6 to 18 months of a failing company.)
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Yes, the financial downside may be limited to just a few single digit months, but if your goal is to build and run your own business within your lifetime, then the 1/1000 odds are still very bad. What seems irrational is not the risk of ruin, but the expectation of success.
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