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patio11's profile
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11

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Patrick McKenzie

@patio11

I work for the Internet, at @stripe, mostly on accelerating startups. Opinions here are my own.

東京都 Tokyo
kalzumeus.com
Joined February 2009

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    1. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 18 Aug 2019
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      A thing which frustrates me with the discourse about WeWork is that if you assert that it is a real estate company which occasionally presents as a tech company when advantageous to court investment, and you argue the valuation comparable should be large CRE operators, then

      3 replies 2 retweets 38 likes
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    2. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 18 Aug 2019
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      presumably you want to talk to a bunch of CRE professionals and ask some meat-and-potatoes questions on their site selection, built density, degree of correlation in their market, stability of funding sources, growth rate qua well-managed CRE portfolios, sophistication on leases,

      2 replies 1 retweet 22 likes
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      Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 18 Aug 2019
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      etc etc etc. I don't think I have a comparative advantage with respect to these questions, but I've been listening to my dad talk about his day job since I was old enough to talk, and my impression is that in an industry filled with bozos they present as reasonably effective.

      8:23 PM - 18 Aug 2019
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      • Gregory Crowder warning: tweets unrelated to news Jeff Atwood Nick Parker Vaibhav Mallya Mike Weatherford🎃 POSIWID Bill Stewart 🇺🇸Elliot Temple🤔
      6 replies 2 retweets 41 likes
        1.  🚲 🚎 🥑‏ @crzwdjk 18 Aug 2019
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          Replying to @patio11

          Honestly just slapping a friendly UX on top of commercial real estate has be worth something.

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        2. Jeff Lonsdale‏ @JeffLonsdale 19 Aug 2019
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          But also much more effective at self-dealing, and levered to the business cycle in more ways than one.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Jeff Lonsdale‏ @JeffLonsdale 19 Aug 2019
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          Replying to @JeffLonsdale @patio11

          If the argument is “In an industry full of incompetent sleazy guys, these are the competent sleazy guys...” well then maybe that is fine but given what happens when insiders are not acting as fiduciaries they should get a multiple closer to Gazprom than Google.

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        2. Spencer #ubiquitoustesting‏ @spencemo_c 19 Aug 2019
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          Replying to @patio11

          Agreed that wework seems to be a pretty effective operator, but as a sublessor they’re fundamentally just highly levered to the business cycle.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Spencer #ubiquitoustesting‏ @spencemo_c 19 Aug 2019
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          Replying to @spencemo_c @patio11

          When rents and occupancy are going up as they have been (remember US is currently experiencing historically long period of sustained growth) they do really well. When things reverse they’re likely in deep s***. They literally operate on the margin.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Hunter Monk‏ @huntermmonk 18 Aug 2019
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          Replying to @patio11

          I don’t quite understand the conclusion. Incompetent CRE people still present well? How does it relate to WeWork valuation?

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        1. Patrick Reynolds‏ @p_reynolds 19 Aug 2019
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          Replying to @patio11

          If they are “reasonably effective” CRE operators, that supports a CRE valuation rather than a tech-unicorn valuation. Right?

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        1. Spencer #ubiquitoustesting‏ @spencemo_c 19 Aug 2019
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          Replying to @patio11

          Would love to hear what your dad thinks ...

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