Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.

This is the legacy version of twitter.com. We will be shutting it down on June 1, 2020. Please switch to a supported browser, or disable the extension which masks your browser. You can see a list of supported browsers in our Help Center.

  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
patio11's profile
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11

Tweets

Patrick McKenzie

@patio11

I work for the Internet, at @stripe, mostly on accelerating startups. Opinions here are my own.

東京都 Tokyo
kalzumeus.com
Joined February 2009

Tweets

  • © 2020 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Imprint
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Leo Polovets‏ @lpolovets 12 Aug 2019
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      Thinking: the internet will crush businesses that rely on information asymmetry or opacity. Some biz models depend on occasional "bargains," like hiring a 5x dev for a 2x salary, or insuring a 5x safer driver for 1/2 the premium. These models will struggle more & more over time.

      30 replies 24 retweets 273 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 12 Aug 2019
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation
      Replying to @lpolovets

      It's my impression that automobile insurance *doesn't* believe there is any material edge to underwriting; they expect to pay Leo's premiums *to Leo* rather than expecting your premiums to materially subsidize higher risk drivers. Underwriting is almost a marketing function.

      5 replies 0 retweets 23 likes
    3. Leo Polovets‏ @lpolovets 12 Aug 2019
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation
      Replying to @patio11

      I'm not sure I understand. If I'm a 3x safer driver but only get a 20% safe driver discount, doesn't that mean my premium is subsidizing other drivers?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 12 Aug 2019
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation
      Replying to @lpolovets

      I think actuaries doubt the existence of 3X safer drivers. There is no underwriting edge capturable versus the usual table; controlling for your age, gender, and zip code, you're actuarially indistinguishable from their worst insurable risk.

      7:28 PM - 12 Aug 2019
      • 9 Likes
      • Capajj Its burn down Gary Basin apenwarr Devan K  Chheda Leo Polovets will
      3 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
        1. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 12 Aug 2019
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation
          Replying to @patio11 @lpolovets

          Given this sketch of the actuarial reality (which I may be wrong about), the safe driving discount is basically indistinguishable from "20% off if you're a Colts fan." Which is a reasonably marketing promotion in auto insurance! It gets you the float of typical risks ~cheaply!

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo
        1. New conversation
        2. Leo Polovets‏ @lpolovets 12 Aug 2019
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation
          Replying to @patio11

          I'm skeptical that there's not much signal beyond age, gender, and zip. How about # of miles driven (Metromile)? Do you mostly drive highways or streets? At rush hour or off-peak? How many accidents have you had in the last 10 years? Do you drive solo, or w/3 passengers? Etc.

          6 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
        3. John Hayes‏ @ghosthayes 12 Aug 2019
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation
          Replying to @lpolovets @patio11

          Auto insurance (in California) is regulated to consider only those parameters (including miles driven) with only some minor influences for social associations. Auto insurance is a transfer from higher income drivers (with fewer collisions) to lower income drivers.

          2 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
        4. 1 more reply
        1. New conversation
        2. Michael Stratton‏ @Mastratton 12 Aug 2019
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation
          Replying to @patio11 @lpolovets

          So is their edge entirely from investing the float?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 12 Aug 2019
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation
          Replying to @Mastratton @lpolovets

          Do you mean competitive edge is from better investment selection? That strikes me as unlikely. Do you mean "Does their money come from investing the float?" Oh, unambiguously yes. The combined ratio of an auto insurer is +/- 100; every $1 in premium goes to a claim or expense.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. 1 more reply

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2020 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Imprint
        • Cookies
        • Ads info