Just had one of those rare rideshare rides where driver and I randomly got to talking business (theirs) and I was able to give (hopefully) decent advice. I would repeat the pricing advice I gave a young consultancy, except you can already predict it.
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Replying to @louisnicholls_
My manager got me one for MicroConf last year and everyone thought it was a poker reference.
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Replying to @patio11 @louisnicholls_
Meaning, civilians around Las Vegas thought it was a poker reference. MicroConf people know me ;)
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Replying to @patio11 @louisnicholls_
What would "charge more" mean in a poker context?
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Replying to @ESRogs @louisnicholls_
Suppose I believe that I presently have the better hand (top pair, say) and believe my opponent is on a draw (flush, say). I should probably raise to, in the vernacular, charge them for attempting to realize their equity in the percentage of future worlds where the draw comes in.
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If one charges too little (or checks in fear of the draw coming in), the villain will have an easy decision and realize their equity on unfavorable to you terms mathematically.
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A simplified example: I hold a pair of aces, one on board, and the board has two hearts with two cards to come. I put my opponent on a flush draw. The pot is presently 500. My opponent will win about 250 of those chips over time, via hitting his flush.
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If I bet five, my opponent should almost certainly call (or perhaps raise). If I bet 250, he has a harder decision. Half of the time when his flush comes in it comes on the river, but there will be another round of action where I will know I am ~80% likely to be ahead.
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And you can construct a bet large enough such that the opponent (in expectation) losing 80% of the size of the bet to call is not worth maintaining their expected value of 20% of the pot. Thus, charge more.
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