Unpopular opinion: Successful startups rely on an enormous amount of luck. What’s the ratio of luck to hard work? #indiehackers
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Replying to @geetfun @IndieHackers
I think that, as written, this is probably accurate, but it mostly gets deployed by people who have not [made a hundred sales calls] against those who have. There’s ten thousand things I could put in those brackets.
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The thing about luck is that it is statistical; the thing about statistics is that your odds do go up each time you try
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“Increasing your luck surface area” - forgot where I heard it but seems to ring true.
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Replying to @lyttlerock @stevec22 and
The TechZing podcast, and one of my favorite metaphors ever. (Luck surface area = amount of value you create * people you tell about it.)
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I’ve often thought ab whether or nt we shld consider luck in startups like gun safety ‘All guns are always loaded’ is a kind of half truth. It’s not true in the objective sense however it greatly decreases undesirable outcomes vs the ‘real truth’ Maybe luck in startups is similar
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Replying to @YounglingAndCo @stevec22 and
I feel like "Startups are dominated by luck" is approximately "Guns are rarely if ever loaded"; literally true but causes people who make plans based on the advice to make really poor life-altering decisions.
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Dominated is not literally true, but pick a slightly softer verb. "Substantially influenced by"
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Replying to @patio11 @YounglingAndCo and
I also like the "4 kinds of luck", mentioned by James Austin,
@pmarca and now@naval, which are known by these phrases: - "blind luck" - "Fortune favors the bold." - "Chance favors the prepared mind." - "We make our fortunes and we call them fate." Not all luck is blind luck!0 replies 0 retweets 2 likesThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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