Unpopular opinion: Successful startups rely on an enormous amount of luck. What’s the ratio of luck to hard work? #indiehackers
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The thing about luck is that it is statistical; the thing about statistics is that your odds do go up each time you try
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“Increasing your luck surface area” - forgot where I heard it but seems to ring true.
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"Ten thousand things in brackets" add to the point. There are so many essential things you can/have to do, as it becomes a matter of luck to select the right ones.
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I *strongly* disagree with that, because they can be learned/taught. There's some sensible way to talk about the amount of execution risk involved in being a doctor versus starting a software company but "luck" is not a helpful or actionable framing of the discussion.
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Depends an awful lot on what you mean by success I think too?
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If it were all luck there would be no serial founders.
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It's not luck, but even if it were, statistically, there would definitely still be serial founders. Also, once you've succeeded, it is much easier to succeed again (e.g. if you've had a $1B exit, it will be easier to get $ to do it again).
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Best explanation!
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You can greatly increase your odds, but variance is such that you'll still get old before you win. Though for someone who nails optimal play, middle class success becomes easily achievable as a consequence. It's just that person overachieved to reach that mark.
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Every action toward the goal (eg those sales calls) is a lottery ticket. Luck plays a role but you build luck through work. I don’t think there’s a way to create a ratio. Cc
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