Thoughts/ideas request: given someone of average ability level and a generalist undergrad education, what would be the optimal pathway to maximise earnings over a 10-year horizon? Maximise for earnings - no attention paid to fit, job satisfaction, morality, or anything else.
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Replying to @danieljthomason
Depends on whether you risk-adjust it or not. If you're optimizing for median, it is to go into software development, get hired by AppAmaGooBookSoft, and work there for 10 years, potentially switching jobs within that employer group once or twice if roadblocked on a promotion.
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Replying to @patio11 @danieljthomason
If you're swinging for the fences, it is to become a technology startup founder, get into YC, and build the biggest software-enabled business possible. The tail end of the distribution is denominated in billions of dollars. (Which may not be entirely liquid in 10 years, but.)
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Replying to @patio11 @danieljthomason
I think the first tweet is probably doable by someone of average ability level contingent on one's reference set for "average" being "bright mostly healthy go-getters in the American middle class." Not entirely obvious average is good enough for second plan.
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(I think you'd have substantial disagreement among people I consider relatively savvy as to what the relative weighting of ability versus luck is among successful startup founders, and in particular whether in influencing outsized success luck is gated on high levels of ability.)
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