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patio11's profile
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11

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Patrick McKenzie

@patio11

I work for the Internet, at @stripe, mostly on accelerating startups. Opinions here are my own.

東京都 Tokyo
kalzumeus.com
Joined February 2009

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    1. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 4 May 2019
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      Tyler Cowen on how the biggest change in daily life from tech in next 20 years will be due to improvements in cars: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-04-29/forget-robots-the-breakthrough-technology-will-be-in-your-car … I've got an alternate one and, forewarned, this is going to be aesthetically very unpleasant for some people:

      6 replies 6 retweets 97 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 4 May 2019
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      I think cooking will, by 2040, be a niche activity like e.g. gardening or sewing, not something which one would reasonably expect from substantially every household. It's getting squeezed by a combination of long-running social changes, cultural norms, and...

      15 replies 28 retweets 143 likes
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    3. DOCTOR Shris Cutton phd‏ @_chris_sutton 4 May 2019
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      Replying to @patio11

      Isn’t this almost already the case in many major Asian cities?

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    4. 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫‏ @gwern 4 May 2019
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      Replying to @_chris_sutton @patio11

      Sounds like it:https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2019-meituan-china-delivery-empire/ …

      2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
    5. FeliciaSW‏ @feliciahsiehsw 9 May 2019
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      Replying to @gwern @_chris_sutton @patio11

      Except that all these #subscription model companies are still funded by VC money. The #gig economy companies may be offering products and services below cost (Uber, Lyft, etc). You have to wait, possibly years, to see if they are self-sustaining in the long-run. #MustWaitAndSee

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫‏ @gwern 9 May 2019
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      Replying to @feliciahsiehsw @_chris_sutton @patio11

      If a bit of VC subsidies can flip the calculus for so many people right now, then we're not far from the threshold, which is evidence that existing trends may be enough to go beyond the threshold without subsidies by 2040. They're proof-of-concepts.

      2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
    7. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 9 May 2019
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      Replying to @gwern @feliciahsiehsw @_chris_sutton

      There’s a phrase in security “Attacks never get worse over time” and I think you can refine that to “Unit economics never get worse over time (except for things suffering cost disease)”, so if you can subsidize people to a number where they’ll abandon a core part of culture...

      2 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
      Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 9 May 2019
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      Replying to @patio11 @gwern and

      ... that core part of culture isn’t going to be core that much longer.

      7:19 AM - 9 May 2019
      • 1 Retweet
      • 4 Likes
      • David McDougall Anna Gát Alex Godofsky Dogs Don't Make Jokes Near Humorless People
      1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
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        2. 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫‏ @gwern 9 May 2019
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          Replying to @patio11 @feliciahsiehsw @_chris_sutton

          I wonder how many of these Asian or other urban takeout consumers are learning how to cook themselves? Maybe cooking will finally go the way of sewing/darning as a default skillset.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫‏ @gwern Mar 15
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          Replying to @gwern @patio11 and

          Incidentally, I'm still very curious about a writeup of Japanese convenience store logistics & East Asian food urban delivery in general, especially in light of how vital they seem to be to implementing Wuhan-style lockdowns.

          1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
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