Was doing quite well in a poker tournament until I was given an object lesson that while “Charge more” is almost always the right play in software “Bluff more” has diminishing marginal returns in poker.
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The hand I went all in on, after whittling down half my stack, was to a good player who had opened to 3 big blinds from under the gun, which normally signals strength. It folded to me on the button. I had AJ and, reasoning poorly, jammed with the objective of folding his pair. AK
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Perhaps bluffability is best modeled as a percolation - cascade phenomenon.
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Yes. Markets are more or less bluffable. Sometimes more, sometimes less. What's the tell? (The IPO window.)
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A fairly common tournament experience
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