I suppose if you're going to structurally require historically high levels of funding to hit your numbers you might have more of a risk factor there, but if you concentrate on your numbers, then money has a funny way of being available under all market conditions.
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" your business exists on a margin or frontier of an industry likely to be vaporized in a pullback" Many such cases among prospective lotto-ticket payoff propositions in SV and on Wall Street. Good general career/mgmt advice, but poor advice for tail-of-the-whip venture CEOs.
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The challenge is: if you're not break-even you're relying upon raising a new funding round every 12-18 months. If you're projecting a 3x growth and then find all of your potential clients have had their budgets cut, you might only be able to hit 1.5x growth and be unable to raise
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Conversion rates in a lot of sectors drop heavily in a downturn and there's only so much optimizing the funnel can save you if your customers themselves are struggling (not to mention the inevitable rise in both soft and hard churn).
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I would argue it’s both this and that you simply can’t predict the macro anyway. So even if it does matter, there’s no point in basing your behavior on your attempt at forecasting it
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Paul Graham talked about this in a very old (I think)
@EconTalker podcast. Noted that there was basically minimal to no change in 2008ish funding environment -
Found it http://www.econtalk.org/graham-on-start-ups-innovation-and-creativity/ … Starting around 29:00 "People were still investing but valuations were lower"
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