A thing that I cannot emphasize enough: when you think of an industry like technology or finance it's mammoth, but when you zoom into a specialty, *everyone knows everyone.* This is useful to know, and to remember, as the arc of a career is 40 years long.
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Back in the day this was a heavily localized phenomenon, so e.g. the SFBA was a small town but entrepreneurs in NYC were in a parallel universe. The Internet has changed this. That sounds obvious and trite. I think people underrate the degree to which it is true.
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The motivating example for this series of tweets is private but suffice it to say that *even knowing that this series of tweets is true* I would have assigned it below a 1e-4 prior probability.
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Replying to @RealtimeAI @patio11
The likelihood of the motivating event in question? The truth of the tweet series?
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Motivating event was being wrong on a 10,000:1 prediction that’s calibrated after years of correcting upwards on this issue specifically.
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