A thing I think is underappreciated: prices measure changes which have often already happened in the world. The change in price is not itself usually the event itself. (Speaking of prices for assets here more than for products.)
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This is one of the reasons venture investors specialize, because the wider markets are like the HN comments inevitably saying “So when is this business going to be profitable?” Venture investors specialize in being indifferent to that contingent on demonstrated growth.
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(I’m being a bit handwavy, because there are stages in VC which happen prior to there being any demonstrable growth, though VC funds seem to be mostly abandoning them to angels/accelerators the last few years.)
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People just don't get exponential growth in general. I don't think it occurred much during human evolution. Sophisticated people know not to bet against 1.1^n, but I've never met anyone who could estimate it intuitively for arbitrary n.
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Can you go more into this, “Sophisticated people know not to bet against 1.1^n, but I've never met anyone who could estimate it intuitively for arbitrary n.”
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