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patio11's profile
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11

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Patrick McKenzie

@patio11

I work for the Internet, at @stripe, mostly on accelerating startups. Opinions here are my own.

東京都 Tokyo
kalzumeus.com
Joined February 2009

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    1. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 2 Mar 2019
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      A thing I think is underappreciated: prices measure changes which have often already happened in the world. The change in price is not itself usually the event itself. (Speaking of prices for assets here more than for products.)

      11 replies 19 retweets 177 likes
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      Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 2 Mar 2019
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      For example, during the financial crisis, the value destruction wasn’t house prices falling, mortgages going under water, derivatives blowing up, or the bailout. These were all epiphenomena. The value destruction was society overallocating productive capacity to housing.

      7:33 PM - 2 Mar 2019
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      7 replies 6 retweets 82 likes
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        2. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 2 Mar 2019
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          (Certain cities in the US are currently engaged in a contest to see who can destroy the most value by illegalizing deploying productive capacity for housing, an event which also impacts prices, in the other direction.)

          4 replies 6 retweets 46 likes
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        3. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 2 Mar 2019
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          Away from housing, one sees this in tech as well. Companies have to “grow into” valuations but the valuations themselves largely structurally lag metrics in the business which suggest that the firm is on a trajectory to possibly plausibly grow into those valuations.

          1 reply 1 retweet 19 likes
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        4. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 2 Mar 2019
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          Pricing attempting to simultaneously predict the future while being set in reference to the past is one of the things which causes so much confusion in the tech industry about it, because many folks’ intuitions about how companies should be valued are informed by regular life.

          2 replies 2 retweets 30 likes
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        5. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 2 Mar 2019
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          Regular life, including many great businesses, doesn’t have virtually any curves which look like 10% month over month growth sustained per year. So people largely are calibrated to assume that they mostly don’t happen. (They do happen.)

          2 replies 14 retweets 83 likes
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        6. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 2 Mar 2019
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          This is one of the reasons venture investors specialize, because the wider markets are like the HN comments inevitably saying “So when is this business going to be profitable?” Venture investors specialize in being indifferent to that contingent on demonstrated growth.

          2 replies 4 retweets 36 likes
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        7. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 2 Mar 2019
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          (I’m being a bit handwavy, because there are stages in VC which happen prior to there being any demonstrable growth, though VC funds seem to be mostly abandoning them to angels/accelerators the last few years.)

          0 replies 1 retweet 14 likes
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        8. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. ⌘‏ @PeterorjustP 2 Mar 2019
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          Replying to @patio11

          @defineforme "epiphenomena"

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Random Questions‏ @crackpotinquiry 2 Mar 2019
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          Replying to @PeterorjustP

          epiphenomena: plural of epiphenomenon formal. Learn more. https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/epiphenomena …

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Wyoming Hippie‏ @wyominghippie1 2 Mar 2019
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          Replying to @patio11

          except you're 100% wrong and these words don't mean much except "i like and want to defend capitalism."

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Bedlam And Clash‏ @BedlamAndClash 3 Mar 2019
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          Replying to @patio11

          And this is all a rounding error compared to having 3.6 million people switch from working productive jobs to watching television and fill out a thousand cover letters.

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