I've probably mentioned this theory before, but: stock markets are a bad indicator for predicting nuclear war. If a nuclear exchange happens, stocks go to zero, so the optimal move for a local is to buy any dip caused by nuclear risk. Dead and broke isn't any worse than dead.
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That's true: if you bought a bunch of diversified OTM puts, the ones that paid off would more than compensate for the counterparties who went under.
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Random question for you: if a time traveler came to you in 2005 with a copy of The Big Short and convinced you of authenticity, what was the optimally capital efficient position there? (Coarse enough granularity to know names and dates but not like individual put expiry prices.)
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