I've probably mentioned this theory before, but: stock markets are a bad indicator for predicting nuclear war. If a nuclear exchange happens, stocks go to zero, so the optimal move for a local is to buy any dip caused by nuclear risk. Dead and broke isn't any worse than dead.
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Like, if one knows that Godzilla strikes Tokyo tomorrow, it seems impossible to me that that fact correlates with no instrument outside of Tokyo.
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That's true: if you bought a bunch of diversified OTM puts, the ones that paid off would more than compensate for the counterparties who went under.
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