Many times I have intuitions that I strongly believe in but I fail at explaining to people why. How do you get buy in for your intuitions/gut feelings?
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At my old org we would sometimes "bet" "Bayes points" Nothing exchanged hands or was even recorded. It was just a way to agree we would actually check the outcome. And also agree in advance that the outcome would convey a certain amount of info about our respective judgments.
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BTW, for betting to work as a custom, people need to understand that winning/losing a bet does not convey a LOT of info about people's judgment (unless you bet at extreme odds and lost). It's just a LITTLE info. If people don't get this, they'll be rightly averse to betting.
End of conversation
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