Three different things people mean by "I'm an optimist" 1) "I try to perceive the world accurately, and my honest assessment is that things are great" 2) "I try to perceive the world positively, regardless of whether that's accurate" 3) "I am cheerful and like solving problems"
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1/ yes, and -- I know both of you know this already but daily reminder that SURVIVORSHIP/hindsight bias is HUGE here, i.e. . See e.g., Gwern review of Stewart Brand's "the media lab" https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/373688680 … …
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2/ lots of GREAT stuff in the comments on this. ESPECIALLY the link to this thread https://twitter.com/backus/status/1057025878444523520 … by
@backus on ideas that sounded crazy and "irrational." - 1 more reply
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