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patio11's profile
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11

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Patrick McKenzie

@patio11

I work for the Internet, at @stripe, mostly on Atlas. Opinions here are my own.

東京都 Tokyo
kalzumeus.com
Joined February 2009

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    1. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Jan 21

      Patrick McKenzie Retweeted Austen Allred

      I wish to emphasize that this is one of those "Difficult to appreciate from the outside, extraordinarily obvious from the inside" facts about the tech industry.https://twitter.com/Austen/status/1087590716887334913 …

      Patrick McKenzie added,

      Austen Allred @Austen
      There are about 55,000 computer science graduates in the United States each year. There are about 25,000 code bootcamp grads. There are *single companies* whose engineering hiring requirements are growing by more than 80,000 software engineers/yr.
      Show this thread
      2 replies 30 retweets 143 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Jan 21

      A company growing at ~2X per year will, in year N+5, hire more people than worked at the company in year N in *every biweekly hiring class.* Mentally think of software companies you were aware of in 2013 and how big they were. If they haven't fallen off the curve, welp.

      2 replies 5 retweets 49 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Jan 21

      AppAmaGooBookSoft probably don't 2X every year but there are units in them which laugh in the general direction of that, and let's say that the rest of the software industry also has lots of projects they'd like to staff.

      2 replies 1 retweet 35 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Jan 21

      "Is this growth sustainable?" I mean, in the narrow sense of "Can anything 2X per year over 100 years", probably no. In the sense of "Should I expect reversion to the mean in software employment?", I would bet against that.

      1 reply 2 retweets 38 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Jan 21

      Considered over the arc of recorded history we're careening at breakneck speeds through a growth curve for "number of people employed who are literate" and "percentage of workforce which materially uses literacy to perform job functions", but that doesn't mean "literacy bubble."

      3 replies 11 retweets 58 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Jan 21

      Consumption of technology skill in productive labor will likely increase over time, and skill levels which would have predicted "highly-skilled specialist" a relatively short time ago will be broadly available in working population. (There will still be specialists at frontier.)

      2 replies 4 retweets 43 likes
      Show this thread
      Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Jan 21

      Remember in living memory that people were given year-long classes to use MS Word. Most did not graduate these classes with meaningful proficiency. McDonalds used to train people to operate registers, for weeks. In 2018 McDonalds can expect *customers* to use POS w/in seconds.

      11:16 PM - 21 Jan 2019
      • 32 Retweets
      • 138 Likes
      • Cliff Fourie Antti K. Koskela paperclique Saku Panditharatne Lachlan Priest Marshall Jacobs Thomas Clarke conputer dipshit Matthias Büge
      4 replies 32 retweets 138 likes
        1. Mike Taber‏ @SingleFounder Jan 22
          Replying to @patio11

          If only those people could be taught the difference between the blue googles and the green googles. 😁

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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        2. “Chicago” Paul‏ @pbachner Jan 22
          Replying to @patio11

          I started at McDonalds in 1984, almost no time was spent training on the register (~ 1 hour), it was more about Cust serv & other activities. You were expected to be productive by the end of your 1st shift & not need assistance by the 3rd. And yes, that was good training

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. 1 more reply
        1. Matthew Cantor‏ @MattCantor Jan 26
          Replying to @patio11

          Is coding “quickly becoming blue-collar work”? (I don’t know who this person is, just saw the screenshot. Honest question)pic.twitter.com/3Pa6SGqkoR

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Thomas Clarke‏ @deworde Jan 21
          Replying to @patio11

          Also, without trying to be particularly woke, there are entire *rich* social groups whose access to technology is at least a decade behind the trad "30 year old white man" demographic, and as they grow, creates new product space.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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