Adding this to my reading list of Purported Trivial Experimental Disproofs Of The Efficient Market Hypothesis Not Written From Atop Enough Money To Make A Dragon Jealous.https://twitter.com/jessefelder/status/1084876418876694529 …
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When you see dramatic swings in the price of a stable business ($SBUX) you can see the EMH is obviously wrong. Whether individuals can reliably take advantage of that to outperform an index fund is a different question.
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Serious q: what does falsifiability look like on this question? People who make above market returns, why is what they’re making _not easy_ money? Hell, what about index funds? Why is “ just buy on this very slowly moving list” not easy money?
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The people making above market returns this year aren’t necessarily the same people next year. So it was easy money for one year but you are supposed to switch to the right people next year which is hard.
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I think this is true at massive investment amounts, but becomes more difficult to generalize to smaller amounts where small local market discontinuities make it so you may have an edge.
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The discontinuities are becoming less frequent as markets become ever more efficient though, so there is that, I suppose.
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Or "Future volatility is generally equal to or greater than the difference between the current real and market values of a given equity"
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