I'm aware this is a lowbrow dismissal but it's sort of like a perpetual motion machine: "Do you have infinite energy?" is a low-effort question but it's pretty dispositive.
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I'm using EMH in a squishy sense here; there are a bunch of versions of it, the one least likely to be wrong being "There is no easy money in stock selection for publicly traded US equities."
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But will that approach continue to work, now that it has been published?
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I do not agree that there is compelling evidence the approach worked.
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The lack of sufficient money to make a dragon jealous does not rule out the possibility that there's an inefficiency which can only be exploited at small scales.
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emh is best thought of as dynamic, not static. meaning that the market is continuously ~becoming~ efficient through participants that bid away any inefficiencies. think of it as ongoing encryption of the price signal. finding post hoc examples doesn’t contradict anything
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Ha, yes. Interesting, but probably misleading. The critical words: “hypothetical portfolio”. Actually buying or selling a portfolio changes the results. While I don’t believe the market is perfectly efficient, I’m pretty sure even a modest fund couldn’t replicate the results.
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rephrasing the above = no
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Meanwhile, Robert Mercer chuckles.
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The Efficient Market Hypothesis is one of the weirdest theories of modern economics. It’s proof for me how modern economics is often anti-scientific and more driven by ideology.
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