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patio11's profile
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11

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Patrick McKenzie

@patio11

I work for the Internet, at @stripe, mostly on accelerating startups. Opinions here are my own.

東京都 Tokyo
kalzumeus.com
Joined February 2009

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    Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 15 Jan 2019
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    Patrick McKenzie Retweeted Jesse Felder

    Adding this to my reading list of Purported Trivial Experimental Disproofs Of The Efficient Market Hypothesis Not Written From Atop Enough Money To Make A Dragon Jealous.https://twitter.com/jessefelder/status/1084876418876694529 …

    Patrick McKenzie added,

    Jesse Felder @jessefelder
    When they constructed a hypothetical portfolio that shorted the companies with primarily negative word changes in the reports, while buying shares of the companies with positive changes, the portfolio outperformed the stock market by 22% points per year. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/10/business/secrets-corporate-reports-apple.html …
    3:03 AM - 15 Jan 2019
    • 6 Retweets
    • 68 Likes
    • Crypto_Salmon Sid arugula James Nicholson ⭐ Daniel Lucraft Daniel Martinez Sagar Dubey Jon Colverson Joe The Rigolo
    8 replies 6 retweets 68 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 15 Jan 2019
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        I'm aware this is a lowbrow dismissal but it's sort of like a perpetual motion machine: "Do you have infinite energy?" is a low-effort question but it's pretty dispositive.

        2 replies 1 retweet 18 likes
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      3. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 15 Jan 2019
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        I'm using EMH in a squishy sense here; there are a bunch of versions of it, the one least likely to be wrong being "There is no easy money in stock selection for publicly traded US equities."

        4 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
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      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Nonessential Noname‏ @fractality 15 Jan 2019
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        Replying to @patio11

        But will that approach continue to work, now that it has been published?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 15 Jan 2019
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        Replying to @fractality

        I do not agree that there is compelling evidence the approach worked.

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. Colin Percival‏ @cperciva 15 Jan 2019
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        Replying to @patio11

        The lack of sufficient money to make a dragon jealous does not rule out the possibility that there's an inefficiency which can only be exploited at small scales.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. thomas vladeck‏ @tvladeck 15 Jan 2019
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        Replying to @patio11

        emh is best thought of as dynamic, not static. meaning that the market is continuously ~becoming~ efficient through participants that bid away any inefficiencies. think of it as ongoing encryption of the price signal. finding post hoc examples doesn’t contradict anything

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      1. John M. P. Knox‏ @WindAddict 15 Jan 2019
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        Replying to @patio11

        Ha, yes. Interesting, but probably misleading. The critical words: “hypothetical portfolio”. Actually buying or selling a portfolio changes the results. While I don’t believe the market is perfectly efficient, I’m pretty sure even a modest fund couldn’t replicate the results.

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      1. Jim Weisser‏ @jimbudweisser 15 Jan 2019
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        Replying to @patio11

        rephrasing the above = no #skininthegame ?

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      1. Harry Heymann‏ @harryh 15 Jan 2019
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        Replying to @patio11

        Meanwhile, Robert Mercer chuckles.

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      1. Fabian Flatz  🦖‏ @fabian_flatz 15 Jan 2019
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        Replying to @patio11

        The Efficient Market Hypothesis is one of the weirdest theories of modern economics. It’s proof for me how modern economics is often anti-scientific and more driven by ideology.

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