Amara's law: 'technology is usually overestimated in the short run, underestimated in the long run'. The reverse, presumably, would be 𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳estimated short run, 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳estimated long run. Examples: 1. nuclear bombs 2. ? 3. ? Hard to come up with convincing examples...
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Hmm... Fax machines. Copiers. Digital cameras without a phone attached. Whale oil lamps. Lobotomies (*shudder*). Asbestos. (“What a great insulator!”) Space travel (fight me, Internet).
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Replying to @spenceraviav @gwern
Satellites create substantially more value than warheads filled with either explosives or people, and since that was very not anticipated, underrated.
10:39 AM - 15 Dec 2018
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