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patio11's profile
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11

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Patrick McKenzie

@patio11

I work for the Internet, at @stripe, mostly on accelerating startups. Opinions here are my own.

東京都 Tokyo
kalzumeus.com
Joined February 2009

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    Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 29 Nov 2018
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    One of my ambient beliefs about the world is that planning in multi-decade increments is a relatively rare skill, but it is pretty valuable, and we historically assumed substantially everyone would outsource it to institutions. Then we hollowed out those institutions.

    8:53 PM - 29 Nov 2018
    • 39 Retweets
    • 201 Likes
    • stupid twitt account Zeev Tarantov ParkerBond useDistancing(6) Jacob Kostecki Dan Hedl Steve Vasquez-Grinnell Zach Sanderson James Lohner Jo Liss
    10 replies 39 retweets 201 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 29 Nov 2018
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        This was pretty suboptimal.

        1 reply 5 retweets 39 likes
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      3. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 29 Nov 2018
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        Pause to acknowledge that maybe doing institutional design on a one-year timescale for the institutions people are relying on for multi-decade planning may have contributed to suboptimal decision making here.

        0 replies 5 retweets 87 likes
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      4. End of conversation
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      2. Irving Rivas‏ @iajrz 29 Nov 2018
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        Replying to @patio11

        Pardon the intrusion, but what are ambient beliefs?

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 29 Nov 2018
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        Replying to @iajrz

        If you imagine my brain like a lava lamp with big, brightly colored, well-considered blobs floating around in Brownian motion, my ambient thoughts are the warm soup that they're floating in.

        1 reply 1 retweet 18 likes
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      2. Barry Cotter‏ @BarryPCotter 29 Nov 2018
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        Replying to @patio11

        And what evidence do we have of great success in multi decade planning at any but the most macro scale? East Asia got rich after WW2 whether laissez faire or industrial policy, Hong Kong or Japan. METI looked great in the 80’s, not so much now. 5/n

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Noah Gibbs‏ @codefolio 30 Nov 2018
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        Replying to @BarryPCotter @patio11

        All retirement planning that has ever succeeded is multi-decade planning. This used to be outsourced to institutions (e.g. pension funds.)

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Barry Cotter‏ @BarryPCotter 29 Nov 2018
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        Replying to @patio11

        The giant organisations of the Great Postwar Boom has five year and multi-decade plans and they’re mostly gone. The plans are certainly gone. The world changes so rapidly that long-term detailed plans are extremely difficult to execute at best. 2/n

        0 replies 1 retweet 0 likes
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      1. Barry Cotter‏ @BarryPCotter 29 Nov 2018
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        Replying to @patio11

        Given the track record of planning on a multi decade scale are you sure it was a big loss? The CIA didn’t know the USSR was going to fall. The Fed can’t come close to controlling the economy. Universities are good at surviving and research but that’s it. 1/n

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      1. Barry Cotter‏ @BarryPCotter 29 Nov 2018
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        Replying to @patio11

        Fuji and Kodak were both massive, successful multi industry conglomerates mostly concerned with photo film. One survives by virtue of bets that paid off. The others’ bets didn’t. How can your long term plan accommodate that? 3/n

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      1. Barry Cotter‏ @BarryPCotter 29 Nov 2018
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        Replying to @patio11

        Values shift too fast to accommodate any long term plan more complicated than survive, which people are already highly motivated to do. If 1950’s US could see weed smoking, high single motherhood, gay marriage, irreligious current US they’d decry it. 4/n

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