This was pretty suboptimal.
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Pause to acknowledge that maybe doing institutional design on a one-year timescale for the institutions people are relying on for multi-decade planning may have contributed to suboptimal decision making here.
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Pardon the intrusion, but what are ambient beliefs?
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If you imagine my brain like a lava lamp with big, brightly colored, well-considered blobs floating around in Brownian motion, my ambient thoughts are the warm soup that they're floating in.
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And what evidence do we have of great success in multi decade planning at any but the most macro scale? East Asia got rich after WW2 whether laissez faire or industrial policy, Hong Kong or Japan. METI looked great in the 80’s, not so much now. 5/n
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All retirement planning that has ever succeeded is multi-decade planning. This used to be outsourced to institutions (e.g. pension funds.)
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The giant organisations of the Great Postwar Boom has five year and multi-decade plans and they’re mostly gone. The plans are certainly gone. The world changes so rapidly that long-term detailed plans are extremely difficult to execute at best. 2/n
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Given the track record of planning on a multi decade scale are you sure it was a big loss? The CIA didn’t know the USSR was going to fall. The Fed can’t come close to controlling the economy. Universities are good at surviving and research but that’s it. 1/n
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Fuji and Kodak were both massive, successful multi industry conglomerates mostly concerned with photo film. One survives by virtue of bets that paid off. The others’ bets didn’t. How can your long term plan accommodate that? 3/n
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Values shift too fast to accommodate any long term plan more complicated than survive, which people are already highly motivated to do. If 1950’s US could see weed smoking, high single motherhood, gay marriage, irreligious current US they’d decry it. 4/n
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