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patio11's profile
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11

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Patrick McKenzie

@patio11

I work for the Internet, at @stripe, mostly on accelerating startups. Opinions here are my own.

東京都 Tokyo
kalzumeus.com
Joined February 2009

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    1. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 25 Nov 2018
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      The benign product is sovereign programmable money, which is historically a niche interest of folks with a relatively clustered set of beliefs about the state, the literary merit of Snow Crash, and the utility of gold to the modern economy.

      9 replies 9 retweets 99 likes
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    2. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 25 Nov 2018
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      This product has narrow appeal and, accordingly, is worth about as much as everything else on a 486 sitting in someone's basement is worth.

      2 replies 2 retweets 35 likes
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    3. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 25 Nov 2018
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      The other product is investment scams, which have approximately the best product market fit of anything produced by humans. In no age, in no country, in no city, at no level of sophistication do people consistently say "Actually I would prefer not to get money for nothing."

      2 replies 7 retweets 106 likes
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    4. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 25 Nov 2018
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      This product needs the exchanges like they need oxygen, because the value of it is directly tied to having payment rails to move real currency into the ecosystem and some jurisdictional and regulatory legerdemain to stay one step ahead of the banhammer.

      2 replies 3 retweets 38 likes
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    5. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 25 Nov 2018
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      Pause here to acknowledge that product two has learned exactly which words to emphasize to product one's audience to borrow their credibility, networks, and talents to facilitate the building of their payment rails and legal entity shellgames. ("It's censorship resistance!")

      1 reply 3 retweets 47 likes
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    6. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 25 Nov 2018
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      "Why are Bitcoin exchanges hives of scum and villainy?" Because if they weren't Bitcoin would be valued at its use value, not its speculative value. "Why don't we find a bottom in the market?" Because the use value is, to a reasonably accurate approximation, zero.

      5 replies 41 retweets 165 likes
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    7. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 25 Nov 2018
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      Oh to be a character in a Michael Lewis book, seeing the world around him gone utterly mad and being virtually unable to stop it or profitably trade it because of market microstructure. *sigh* Hey narrator, make this book more like the Big Short and less like Flash Boys, please.

      4 replies 3 retweets 81 likes
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    8. Jonathan Paulson‏ @PaulsonJonathan 25 Nov 2018
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      Replying to @patio11

      You can short bitcoin futures at CME

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 25 Nov 2018
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      Replying to @PaulsonJonathan

      Believe me, I know, but the combination of ~$40k of margin requirement per Bitcoin (at least at my broker) plus 25% circuitbreaker (and pre-commitment to not settle at or near zero) means my risk to the upside is uncapped but returns on the downside are not very attractive.

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    10. Jonathan Paulson‏ @PaulsonJonathan 25 Nov 2018
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      Replying to @patio11

      Is that margin per contract or per coin? (IIRC each contract is five bitcoin). I don’t follow why circuit breaker matters or what pre-commitment you mean; if the prices at the bitcoin exchanges drop to ~0 the future will settle there? Is risk worse than any other short?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 25 Nov 2018
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      Replying to @PaulsonJonathan

      Patrick McKenzie Retweeted Patrick McKenzie

      Margin is per coin (it's $40k for the contract which is 1 BTC and $200k for the contract which is 5; can't remember which exchange is which). If prices drop to zero they've said "Won't settle near zero."https://twitter.com/patio11/status/930338462531698688 …

      Patrick McKenzie added,

      Patrick McKenzie @patio11
      This decreases my level of interest about the CME Bitcoin futures: pic.twitter.com/L5oI6JS7zB
      Show this thread
      6:24 PM - 25 Nov 2018
      • 4 Likes
      • Maxim runako Jonathan Paulson
      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        1. Jonathan Paulson‏ @PaulsonJonathan 25 Nov 2018
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          Replying to @patio11

          Wow 10x margin is insane. Thanks for the CME reference; I hadn’t seen that. That’s really bad...seems to defeat the whole point of having a future :(

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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