It's a very disorienting thing to have one's professional acquaintances be right about substantially everything except that their insistence that the moon is made of raspberry jam, but for what it is worth, people really did say "raspberry jam!" and Preston really did say "No." https://twitter.com/prestonjbyrne/status/1063520896470667271 …
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A conversation that happened many times. "And clearly the moon is made of raspberry jam." "... That is very untrue." "Oh you a jam expert then?" "One does not have to be a jam expert, because it is not jam." "Got an astrology license?" "It's not even called that."
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"Well have you ever touched the moon." "One doesn't need to touch it because we have this thing called the Internet which has words written on it, and the words are clear and unambiguous." "Well my Internet has words about raspberry jam." "Yes, I have read them. Not. Persuasive."
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"You just lack vision, you statist shill." "That statement does not cause me to update in favor of the moon's jamminess." "I bet you've shorted jam futures." "... a) Have not. b) The part of my brain which cannot resist intellectual puzzles reports that that wouldn't work."
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Replying to @patio11
Tangential to your main point here, but out of curiosity, assuming such things existed and I could short them, why would that not work? (Coming from the same part of my brain)
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Replying to @notcalledjack
I mean this is probably taking the absurdity too literally, but in the example of someone believing the moon is made of jam, removal of the moon-sized jam supply from the market would tend to increase the price of jam (if any sophisticated participant believed it to be real).
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The trade that people were usually literally suggesting was "Just short them!" but the venues for shorting them exposed anyone doing business there to such ridiculous levels of counterparty risk that most future worldstates where I was proven correct would result in losing money.
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Replying to @patio11
Definitely counterparty risk is something I hadn’t considered. I was modeling more trading on a centrally cleared exchange, but of course I was dragging in too much with that. Removal of the jam supply is less convincing as the jam’s only current utility is there’s a moon of it.
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