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patio11's profile
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11

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Patrick McKenzie

@patio11

I work for the Internet, at @stripe, mostly on accelerating startups. Opinions here are my own.

東京都 Tokyo
kalzumeus.com
Joined February 2009

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    1. Leo Polovets‏ @lpolovets 8 Nov 2018
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      The costs of ballot initiatives should be described in per capita numbers, not absolute numbers. Bad: "this project will cost $8b." Good: "this project will cost the average taxpayer $3k over two years." "Is this worth $8b?" is very different from "would you pay $3k for this?"

      6 replies 20 retweets 123 likes
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    2. Zachary Reiss-Davis‏ @ZacharyRD 8 Nov 2018
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      Replying to @lpolovets

      True but the “the average taxpayer” especially in CA, with massive income inequality compounded by Prop 13, is a mythical creature. I think a single per capita number might confuse more than help.

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
    3. Leo Polovets‏ @lpolovets 8 Nov 2018
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      Replying to @ZacharyRD

      Leo Polovets Retweeted Leo Polovets

      True. The phrasing could be "a person making $50,000 per year would pay $68 if this proposition passes." Also:https://twitter.com/lpolovets/status/1060714558451372032?s=19 …

      Leo Polovets added,

      Leo Polovets @lpolovets
      I'd also love to see a breakdown at tax time of where your money is going. "You owe California $8,638 in taxes this year. $174 of that is for the LA/SF bullet train that'll be complete in 9 years. $49 is for establishing 5 more state parks. $68 is for funding 2 new prisons, ..."
      Show this thread
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    4. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 8 Nov 2018
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      Replying to @lpolovets @ZacharyRD

      Almost everything on the ballot will be almost free to someone making $50k a year, since you’re not voting on e.g. teacher pensions and since progressive income taxes are a thing.

      1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
    5. Leo Polovets‏ @lpolovets 8 Nov 2018
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      Replying to @patio11 @ZacharyRD

      I think the annual budget in California is $200b, and someone earning $50k would pay $4500 in state taxes. If a new measure costs $10b/year, that's $225 extra to the example taxpayer.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Leo Polovets‏ @lpolovets 8 Nov 2018
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      Replying to @lpolovets @patio11 @ZacharyRD

      But I definitely hear you, the less one earns, the more incentive there is to approve spending initiatives, since they are mostly covered by others.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 8 Nov 2018
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      Replying to @lpolovets @ZacharyRD

      $4.5k? Seems way higher than my prior on it since total tax burden shouldn't be more than about $10~12k at that level. https://smartasset.com/taxes/california-tax-calculator#R7z07n9999 … suggests about $1.7k, which seems more plausible, and suggests a $8 per billion or so marginal impact.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 8 Nov 2018
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      Replying to @patio11 @lpolovets @ZacharyRD

      (Sorry, being a tax/policy geek.)

      9:04 PM - 8 Nov 2018
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      • Vaibhav Mallya Leo Polovets will
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        1. Leo Polovets‏ @lpolovets 8 Nov 2018
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          Replying to @patio11 @ZacharyRD

          Oops you are right. $1,700. The tax calculator I used was buggy. Still, that means a $10b/year measure would cost you ~$85 a year, and that's not something people would throw away trivially I imagine.

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        1. Zachary Reiss-Davis‏ @ZacharyRD 8 Nov 2018
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          Replying to @patio11 @lpolovets

          That sounds about right to me as well, and is a great example of why showing the number per income level (and if you own a home, if local) makes a huge difference - almost no one (not judging; mean it overall) has a good sense of individual tax impact of different bills.

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