Since the discipline of making predictions with numbers is a useful one: 5% chance crypto qua crypto durably becomes used as a source of value 10% chance that something recognizably cryptolike gets used for fiat settlement materially (billions per year) ...https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1055528883523645440 …
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30% chance that crypto has approximately the economic and social impact of Civil War reenactors 55% second coming of the dot com bubble ("but no Amazon"); every dollar invested lost; no material value created whatsoever
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And for what it is worth I don't mean 5% chance "crypto becomes gold" I mean 5% chance "crypto is used as a ledger for non-currency-denominated savings at something at or above the level of assets of a US community bank"
5:39 PM - 28 Oct 2018
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