Tether, the cryptocurrency which is theoretically backed 1:1 by USD held in a bank account and available on demand, is currently in the early stages of a bank run.
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(The only sensible way to short Bitcoin at the moment is futures and the structure of those products does not make me confident that I have a happy result for my family contingent on me being absolutely right.)
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You don’t believe that the CME or CBOE will pay off their futures contracts? Odd, because they’ve never defaulted in their history (on the contracts themselves). What makes you believe that shorting there wouldn’t pay?
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What is your current best estimate of time period X?
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Within the next few centuries
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It would take a confident man to bet against this trend :)pic.twitter.com/BNleod40Xq
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Probably you can get some OTC broker to create such option for you - are you really going to do this assuming there would be a counterparty?
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Also Bitcoin may be overvalued even by a factor of 10^6 but existence of persistent holders of last resort makes bitcoin value coming to zero impossible.
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On a long enough timeline, the value of everything tends toward zero.
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I'd argue it's unlikely to do that if one of the largest tech companies on the planet was using it as the foundation for a DPKI system, but I'm curious what you think the effect of that would be.
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Use options on e.g. deribit
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