A wild thing: we have institutions which can trivially keep multi-decade commitments (like e.g. mortgages or pensions). The number drops way off after the 100 year mark (top end of universities, a small set of governments, and churches). It gets even smaller at ~250 years.
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Catholic Church, yes. Not so sure about the USA making it another 250 years.
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Family businesses (especially Japanese) are very interesting edge cases: https://www.businesstoday.in/opinion/columns/how-worlds-oldest-family-businesses-have-survived-for-centuries/story/264445.html …
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A mortgage is the other way around (the bank is dependent on the title system, you are not depending on the bank). I can't think of any systems which have long lock in, even t bills have secondary markets so there's progressive tracking of counterparty risk.
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A promise to continue receiving payments is near or at the top of the easiest promises to make. I think annuities- where the $ flows the other direction- would provide more realistic information.
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