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patio11's profile
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11

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Patrick McKenzie

@patio11

I work for the Internet, at @stripe, mostly on accelerating startups. Opinions here are my own.

東京都 Tokyo
kalzumeus.com
Joined February 2009

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    Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 1 Aug 2018
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    Since I guessed wrong about this, without looking it up, what number do you think is closest to the total value of outstanding Starbucks gift cards at any given time:

    12:20 AM - 1 Aug 2018
    • 28 Retweets
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    14 replies 28 retweets 77 likes
      1. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 1 Aug 2018
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        The answer is on page 52 of their annual report. https://s22.q4cdn.com/869488222/files/doc_financials/annual/2017/01/FY17-Starbucks-Form-10-K.pdf …

        11 replies 1 retweet 25 likes
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      2. Colin Percival‏ @cperciva 1 Aug 2018
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        Replying to @patio11

        Add another ~20% if you want to include "these cards still have balances, but we're pretty sure they've been lost and the owners will never make use of said balances" amounts.

        2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      3. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 1 Aug 2018
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        Replying to @cperciva

        Breakage revenue was 5X my estimate. (And, I expect, materially higher than 20% of the booked liability if you summed it over time.)

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      2. Principia‏ @Principia 1 Aug 2018
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        Replying to @patio11 @codinghorror

        Includes all of the value of any Starbucks cards with a stored value, including masses still sitting around unpurchased on the shelves of other retailers. They're correct to do so, but I wonder what the percentage of the potential liability is comprised of cards no-one owns yet.

        2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 1 Aug 2018
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        Replying to @Principia @codinghorror

        That feels very unlikely to be as a matter of GAAP; you incur the liability when the amount is known and performance is actually required, which is as of purchase/activation.

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. Stephen Hamilton‏ @StevieHamilton 1 Aug 2018
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        Replying to @patio11

        Wow! That’s unreal...

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. an end‏ @hyperfekt 1 Aug 2018
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        Replying to @patio11

        Fermi estimation wins again.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Dusty (oh, now being a hermit is good?) Burwell‏ @dustyburwell 1 Aug 2018
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        Replying to @patio11

        Starbucks is basically _the_ example of what people hype about prepaid. Holding onto a billion of other people's dollars is great. And turning 4 $5 transactions into one $20 transaction is also pretty nice.

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      1. Mike Healy‏ @mike_hasarms 1 Aug 2018
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        Replying to @patio11

        Enough that if all the gift cards were redeemed within a 24 hour period they'd have to make 3343 coffees/second (at $4.50/drink) 😀

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      1. Ronda Taylor‏ @RondaTango 1 Aug 2018
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        Replying to @patio11

        I guessed correctly!

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