I wish folks would actually talk about the real returns on startup equity more often. I understand the urge to talk about it like a "lottery ticket". But it's an investment like anything else. And you should gather info about it to decide if it's an investment you want to make. https://twitter.com/zadr/status/1013106779587301379 …
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Is that a useful statement though? There are N number of winning lottery tickets that will produce life changing outcomes as well. The question is what are the numbers on that distribution? And is it a smarter investment than other things you could go with your time and labor?
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It is my perception that the probability of life-changing outcomes goes from 0.002% (I have a rationale for that number; it isn't "arbitrarily low number") to ~80% for things that are both sold as "equity in a promising but risky startup." Material = "We hire 100+ eng here / yr"
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