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patio11's profile
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11

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Patrick McKenzie

@patio11

I work for the Internet, at @stripe, mostly on accelerating startups. Opinions here are my own.

東京都 Tokyo
kalzumeus.com
Joined February 2009

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    1. Marco Rogers‏ @polotek 1 Jul 2018
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      Marco Rogers Retweeted

      I wish folks would actually talk about the real returns on startup equity more often. I understand the urge to talk about it like a "lottery ticket". But it's an investment like anything else. And you should gather info about it to decide if it's an investment you want to make. https://twitter.com/zadr/status/1013106779587301379 …

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      7 replies 11 retweets 61 likes
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    2.  🔎Julia Evans 🔍‏ @b0rk 1 Jul 2018
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      Replying to @polotek

      one statistic I’m interested in is — what % of these startups do non-executive employees typically end up owning (as a group)? 5%? 10%? 30%

      2 replies 2 retweets 32 likes
    3. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 1 Jul 2018
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      Replying to @b0rk @polotek

      My Fermi estimate is 8% +/- 2%, with the assumptions a) Silicon Valley norm of 20% reserved for employee option pool b) a few percentage points of that (2~6%) went to executive hires, with the biggest contributor being non-founder CEO if that happens c) diluted to about half

      1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
      Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 1 Jul 2018
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      Replying to @patio11 @b0rk @polotek

      I think that the standard HN/etc discourse of options doesn't realize the magnitude of the discontinuity which happens between "Oh we're a bunch of kids doing the startup thing" and "Company X seems like reasonable shot on the next big thing."

      7:33 PM - 1 Jul 2018
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        2. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 1 Jul 2018
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          Replying to @patio11 @b0rk @polotek

          e.g. For the first employee of a company which might or might not make it into YC, I feel like "lottery ticket" is approximately accurate, but there exist N companies which will hire material numbers of engineers this year and produce lifechanging outcomes for them.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Marco Rogers‏ @polotek 1 Jul 2018
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          Replying to @patio11 @b0rk

          Is that a useful statement though? There are N number of winning lottery tickets that will produce life changing outcomes as well. The question is what are the numbers on that distribution? And is it a smarter investment than other things you could go with your time and labor?

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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